Scenario - Based Simulation Model of Land Use Development

prof. Ing. arch. Karel Maier, CSc., doc. Ing. arch. Jakub Vorel, Ph.D.

The paper presents the application of theoretical concepts and methodology of land use modelling on prediction of future development of territory. The chosen approach is to replicate the urban growth dynamics of medium-size city region in the form of simulation model and to predict alternative scenarios of future land use pattern. The concept, implementation and validation of simulation model are briefly discussed. The Kappa, Fuzzy Kappa and Fractal dimension measures indicate the correspondence of the simulation model with the alternative random model and with the observation of real land use pattern. While the simulation model outperform the alternative random model in location of family houses and recreation houses, its predictions still has weak correspondence of multi-family houses and region-scale retail facilities with the observed land uses. The paper presents presumable causes of inaccuracy of location predictions and proposes several possibilities of model improvement.

Za obsah této stránky zodpovídá: prof. Dr. Henri Hubertus Achten